Antifragile Acquisitions

“Antifragility is beyond resilience. The resilient resists shocks

and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Antifragile: A term to describe systems, entities, or processes that improve under stress.. Unlike fragile systems that break under pressure or robust systems that merely resist it, antifragile systems thrive in volatility, leveraging disorder or adversity to enhance their performance, resilience, or capabilities.

The 3PQ Acquisition & Management System is an antifragile approach for advanced designbuild acquisitions and procurements. The 3PQ Process recognizes 8 elements of antifragility.

The Triad

>Fragile breaks

>Robust resists

>Antifragile gains

Via Negativa

Remove what harms:

The project owner is no longer involved in the time-consuming design & construction decision-making process; rather, the project owner controls outcome via pre-established performance criteria

Skin in the Game

Decision-makers must bear the consequences of their choices:

Fixed Price & performance, and Incentives hold both contract entities to account for their decisions.

Barbell Strategy

Avoid “mediocre” risks that bleed slowly:

DesignBuilder bears the burden of proof for the performance outcome, while the project owner bears the burden of substantiation for accepting that outcome.

Optionality

Preserve upside without obligation:

Applies Award Fee Incentives (beyond base contract price) for project & process innovations and excellence.

Hormesis

Mild stressors strengthen the system:

The RFP (procurement phase) evolves by measuring the clarity & achievability of the document's details prior to proposal.

The Lindy Effect

Time is the ultimate test: Control by the Master Builder is about 3,775 years old as detailed in the Code of Hammurabi. That accent approach was bifurcated about 175 years ago.

Redundancy

Antifragile = built-in buffers:

3 solutions derived from 3 face-to-face meetings, and proven multiple times until project completion.

The Project Owner's Antifragile Acquisition Strategy

Antifragile Acquisitions